Afghanistan: Dire predictions

Afghanistan: Dire predictions

SENATOR LARRY PRESSLER (RETD)



THE US military presence in Afghanistan has to be opposed as it can lead to very negative results for India and the world. First, a little background. This writer is one of the few remaining Americans who served voluntarily in the US army in Vietnam and, in fact, volunteered for a second tour of duty there in 1968. At that time I believed President Lyndon Johnson and secretary of defense Robert McNamara that we had a very noble cause in Vietnam and that we were winning. Of course, later, both men confessed that they had been lying, and worse still, they knew they were lying!

Nevertheless, as a young man I had very limited information and had seen that the British had apparently defeated the communists in Malaysia with a Strategic Hamlet Program. Several wonderful combat medals were awarded to me, but by the time I left Vietnam I was convinced of what I shall call Pressler’s Basic Rule: you cannot send young men with rifles to a foreign country where they do not speak the language; where they know nothing of the culture; and expect them to transform the country.

Some very strange things are happening. It seems that the national and international media supports the concept that we can send men with rifles to a truly foreign land and transform it. We praise the military — we praise those who volunteer for our military service to an extreme, almost unbelievable, level for this Vietnam veteran. The regard for the military was so low when I checked out of the Oakland Army Base that I was advised not to wear my uniform into San Francisco as I might be spat on!

I have never met a Vietnam veteran (except career military) who believes we can win in Afghanistan. Being fairly active in veteran’s affairs, I meet quite a few Vietnam veterans who served in the military for three-to-six years. Among those aging soldier warriors, the universal feeling is that we should withdraw completely from Afghanistan. But somehow, this feeling is not permeating into the news media.

Strangely enough, Barack Obama ran for President on a platform of reducing troops abroad, but has done just the opposite. I was a part of Republicans for Obama, on the grounds that he would reduce or withdraw our commitment to Afghanistan. His campaign statements were very clear on this. And somehow, without much explanation, he seems to have yielded to the forces of our national security military industrial state.

My prediction is that the US ’surge’ in Afghanistan will appear to be working in some cases. But the Taliban will not stand and fight, but fade away whenever US troops appear. After three years the US will withdraw, except from the capital, and the country will essentially be taken over by the Taliban. During those three years, Pakistan will be given more and more modern equipment by the US (as is happening) and will emerge as one of the strongest militaries in the world.

India will struggle along desperately, buying more arms from the US and elsewhere. When the US leaves Afghanistan, India will have a Pakistan ’on steroids’ next-door and a Taliban state to deal with in Afghanistan. The rouge ISI will be playing all kinds of tricks on India, and India will be left alone to answer as best she can.

The policy options at this stage are grim. My recommendation is that the US begin withdrawing troops now and stop giving so much additional military aid to Pakistan. But that is unlikely to happen. It is time for Indian leaders to speak up much more strongly in criticising the US for both remaining in Afghanistan and for the arms being given to Pakistan. The Indian leadership has been almost mute on this dangerous development. There is something of an anti-war movement in the US, similar to what finally got us out of Vietnam, but without some international voices crying out (especially India’s), we are headed for a major catastrophe that will last for decades.